USA, Crisis at Sight. The Begining of The End ?

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"The United States will lose its Worldwide Dominance in the coming Years" Theotonio dos Santos. He warned that the worst for the capitalist economy is to come. Interview Alfredo Vanini

Teacher-Dos Santos, the U.S. financial crisis is an internal crisis of the capitalist system that has collapsed estrepitosamente. It was revised again in Europe and the U.S. thesis of Keynes, of Schumpeter, including Rosa Luxemburg. Is it the end of Adam Smith and the return of other great economists?

-I can answer from my own vision of economic theory. I have worked hard in recent years within the perspective of the long waves of Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev and his idea of periods of fifty, sixty years, during which the first 25 are ascent and descent of the other 25. This idea was first worked by Kondratiev in 1922 when he worked in the direction of the Institute of Statistical Studies of the Soviet Union. He discovered this phenomenon and sought an explanation in terms of technological and financial. The relationship technology and finance are the two key elements he found associated with these cycles. There is a whole stream of Schumpeterian working on these considerations.

Schumpeter absorbed very well the studies of Kondratiev and disclosed in a book entitled The major economic cycles long. There he joined other even shorter cycles: four, ten years as the mode of operation of capitalism. Within this vision, in the twentieth century are a period of decline that starts from the years 1914-1918, and was until 1945. After the second world war occurs again a period of promotion. Then begins the so-called "golden period" of capitalism that goes until 1967. There he starts again a negative wave with a big fall of capitalist growth.

Crisis-which has its peak in 1973. But after that time, the United States does not recomposed its economy? -Look, the decline of U.S. starts very slowly in 1967. Definitely the Vietnam War has much to do because it ends with the extremely favorable position that took the U.S. after the war in Europe. In 1950 the U.S. had 50% of the global economy, while today they are reduced to 16% or so.

-The war seems to play an important role in the consolidation of global hegemony. -The cyclical movements are associated with power centers. First we had the hegemony Portuguese and Spanish (ages 17 and 18), then the Dutch and the British and finally the United States that took the lead during the First World War and consolidates its hegemony after the Second. These centers are open-hegemonic historical between 150 and 200 years. But the cycle of American hegemony, and here we agree it all, it will be a shorter cycle.

- What exactly happens in 1967 with the U.S. economy? In 1967, establishing basic situations of destabilization: one to maintain the imperial system (and war is a key element) is inevitable that there will be a fiscal deficit. But while there is also a trade deficit because the U.S. fails to establish itself as a predominantly exporting country. In 1969 he moves from country to the importer and exporter of creditor to debtor country, mainly because of the fiscal deficit. All this affects the third key element is that the dollar coin that restructured the world economy after the Bretton Woods agreements: the dollar today no longer has the conditions to remain as a global reference currency because the dollar before a guaranteed convertibility with gold . Since 1971 the U.S. abandon finally this equivalence and we enter a phase called "snake" in which the currencies move without a definite direction.

- With Clinton there was a slight recovery in the U.S. financial system? Between 1993-94, starting a process of recovery. What happened is that the Clinton administration resumed economic growth to moderate rates and basically on a very important technological base. Clinton left a fiscal surplus of roughly $ 300 billion, for education and health sector. But George Bush, after his first year, already had a deficit of more than 100 billion. And today the deficit is huge, especially with the Iraq war, which involves very high costs.

-Head to the crisis and the notion of economic periods, what is its year of origin? -We started in 1987 with the fall of the dollar by 40%. Then recovers when European and Japanese banks bought dollars with the intention to raise it again and reduce the impact so violent this fall. But at the beginning of 1990 the interest rate reached 18% drops to 4%. With Clinton recovering productive investment. During this period Japan goes into crisis. Therefore, the economy begins to generate more local crises: Mexico (1992), Brazil (1994), Asia (1997), Russia (1998), Brazil again (1999) and Argentina (2000). All these crises, in such a short period, occurring within this huge bubble. When everything starts to recover, occurs the U.S. crisis exploded in 2001. It gets the same system of artificial prices and speculation of large false speculation.

- What is today the scene of the U.S. crisis? Do you may get out of it? Today is looking for liquidity that do not have, since all countries are debtors. The U.S. will then continue borrowing to deliver resources to their banks by helping them to survive. We are going to have a solution to the crisis, but with three significant costs: the growth rates are no longer able to be as high as in previous periods because all the funding is already committed to the financial sector. Second, the financial sector will remain very large and significant and that should hold it is the state, but this support, as is seeing now, it will be very dramatic. And thirdly, the dollar fell as coin because they can not stand. And will continue to fall. USA Today is a country with a huge crisis that continues to heavily indebted. All this should be completed in about seven years, with a truly dramatic crisis that will drag the entire global system.

-The idea of James Tobin for a tax on speculative capital flows was interesting but never materialized. Do you have been adopted in 1972, the year he proposed, would have avoided this current crisis? Not-so as to avoid the crisis, but it would have been able to do much to reduce the impact of poverty, which is the most terrifying face of this global system that generates such huge resources in the hands of a small group of the financial sector to prevent these resources intended to serve more than 50% of the world's population living in poverty. You have said publicly a few days ago that this crisis is a good opportunity for the countries of the so-called Third World.

-It 's that can be strengthened, either by their raw materials (whose prices will fall, but not both), either by their large financial reserves. Certain countries are able to accumulate resources. And the Chinese who are emerging as leaders of this trend, and begin to require restructuring the global financial system, as it did not want to commit to the present. This fight is going to go little by little become more significant over the next seven, eight years. And when the next crisis occurs, it is very likely that American hegemony suffer a catastrophically. Hardly the U.S. will be able to maintain itself as the hegemonic country. The centers will move towards hegemonic China, Brazil, Russia and India. It is expected that these four are seriously the most important countries in twenty years.

- What has happened in Argentina with the AFPs? Neo-liberals say that this is a theft of state in bankruptcy. - Where did you get the idea that Argentina is bankrupt? Argentina is now in very good situation. Just over $ 40 billion in reserves. It is clearly an intervention to protect the money of the people. The AFPs are on the verge of bankruptcy. What some called for him to the Argentine government is that it helps, but that does not take responsibility. Which is absurd, precisely what is happening in the U.S., delivering resources to the banks when the state has no money. That is to say that this money will come from U.S. citizens who pay the mistakes of the real culprits of the crisis. Argentina has acted in accordance with an idea that Europe is something in common, namely that in crisis, the state intervenes and takes responsibility. Pretend that it does not, is the real theft, burglary private: the State steals money from people to give to some incompetent. The of los spoilsport

- "The Capital" of Marx is again selling like hotcakes today. But, given its enormous complexity, it is likely that few understand what Why Marxist economists, less dense, it should be read today so vital? There are several. One is French Francois Chesnais, useful for understanding how the financial system. Another is François Morin, also French, which goes along the lines of Chesnais. A great Marxist economist who has investigated the role of the Third World as an active player in the financial world is the Egyptian economist Samir Amin. Although not an economist, should be taken to Immanuel Wallerstein.

Would also recommend reading "Adam Smith in Beijing", Giovanni Arreghi important book in which he discusses the Chinese economy and recalls that it wanted Smith as the model in the 18th century. And there is no doubt that reading to what I consider the most discussed contemporary economist, Frank André Gunther, sadly passed away recently, who wrote a critical book entitled "Re-Orient."

( Comments of Oscar Granda)

Through the history of humans, we have seen many empires. All come to a stage of peak, but no matter the political model to adopt, also come to their stage of decay. Perhaps we are witnessing today, the beginning of the end of the North-American empire, USA. Only the time will tell ... Maybe, the important thing is that the political model adopted, prioritizes the welfare of human beings, building a world with opportunities for all.